Turd Polishing at USA Today: A Data-Driven Critique of Nicole Russell’s Texas Analysis

USA Today's Editorial Standard: 'Optimism Is Close Enough to Truth'

On Feb, 9 2026 Nicole Russell penned another opinion piece for USA Today that, like most conservative commentary, relies on strategic omission and cherry-picked statistics to construct a narrative that falls apart under even modest scrutiny. Russell argues that Texas will not turn blue and that the recent Democratic flip of Texas Senate District 9 is not cause for alarm among Republicans. While I share her conclusion that Texas is not on the verge of turning blue, the reasoning she employs reveals exactly the kind of motivated reasoning that keeps conservative voters perpetually surprised when elections do not go their way.

The fundamental problem with Russell’s analysis is not that she reaches the wrong conclusion about Texas politics, but that she arrives at that conclusion through the same intellectual shortcuts that have consistently led the Republican Party to misread the American electorate. Let me show you what I mean.

The Texas Senate District 9 Upside-Down Story

Russell acknowledges that Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped Texas Senate District 9, a district that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. She notes that Rehmet won with 57% to 43% over Republican Leigh Wambsganss. What she conveniently fails to emphasize is the context that makes this result genuinely concerning for Republicans.

According to data from FairVote, turnout in the January 2026 runoff was 94,880 voters compared to 118,912 in the November 2025 general election, a 20% decline (FairVote, 2026). This drop in participation is typical for runoffs, but the story is not about the absolute numbers. The story is that a first-time candidate, outspent by more than ten to one, defeated a candidate backed by the Texas Senate Leadership Fund, Patriot Mobile, and every major Republican power structure in the state. Wambsganss reported $736,000 in expenditures compared to Rehmet’s roughly $70,000 (Texas Tribune, 2026). When a Democrat can win a district that heavy under those conditions, that is not a fluke. That is a signal.

Russell quotes CNN data analyst Harry Enten correctly when he noted that the district “took a rocket ship” to the left, but she immediately pivots to dismiss the significance of this shift. This is a pattern familiar to anyone who has watched conservative commentators over the past decade: acknowledge the uncomfortable data point, then explain why it does not matter, all in the same breath.

The Unemployment Distortion

Russell writes that conservatives “have made headway on this” regarding affordability, noting that “unemployment and inflation dropped recently.” Let me be clear about what the actual data shows.

The current unemployment rate is 4.4% as of December 2025, down from 4.5% the previous month (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2026). This is a modest improvement, not a dramatic shift. However, Russell implies that current conditions represent some kind of economic triumph, which requires a willful misunderstanding of recent history. During the height of the pandemic in April 2020, unemployment peaked at 14.8% (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020). While current unemployment is certainly lower than that pandemic peak, it is also worth noting that unemployment has been trending upward from the historic lows of 3.4% reached in early 2023. To frame current conditions as a victory requires ignoring the trajectory.

More importantly, focusing solely on the unemployment rate obscures deeper labor market problems. The labor force participation rate stands at 62.4%, which is actually lower than the 62.5% from a year earlier (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2026). This means the unemployment figure understates weakness in the job market because it does not count people who have given up looking for work entirely. The employment-population ratio, at 59.7%, also shows that a smaller share of the working-age population is employed than was the case in 2024 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026).

The unemployment number is not as bad as it was during the pandemic, contrary to what you might hear from frustrated observers, but it is also not good news in any meaningful sense of that word. Russell’s presentation of these statistics as evidence of conservative economic success is the kind of willful misinterpretation that passes for analysis in too many opinion pages.

The Inflation Shell Game

Russell’s handling of inflation data is even more intellectually dishonest, though she is hardly alone in this. She notes that “inflation dropped recently,” which is technically true in the narrowest possible sense. The annual inflation rate was 2.7% for the 12 months ending December 2025, down from 8.0% in 2022 (US Inflation Calculator, 2026).

What Russell does not explain, because explaining it would undermine her argument, is the critical distinction between disinflation and deflation. Inflation dropping means that prices are rising more slowly than before. It does not mean that prices have gone down. A gallon of milk that cost $3.50 in 2021 and costs $4.25 today has not gotten cheaper just because the rate at which it is getting more expensive has slowed from 8% per year to 3% per year. The damage to household budgets from the 2021-2022 inflation surge has already been done. That damage does not get undone simply because the inflation rate has returned to more normal levels.

This distinction matters because the experience that voters have is not abstract. They remember that eggs cost twice what they used to cost. They remember that rent has doubled in many cities. Telling them that inflation has “dropped” sounds like a taunt when their paychecks have not kept pace with the price increases that have already occurred.

The ICE Paradox

Russell cites Cygnal polling data showing that 73% of Americans say entering the country illegally is breaking the law and that 61% support deportation (Cygnal, 2026). She also mentions that a YouGov poll found that 57% of Americans do not support ICE tactics. This creates a tension in her argument that she never addresses.

The YouGov poll, conducted January 24-25, 2026, found that 57% of Americans disapprove of the way ICE is handling its job, and 58% say that ICE’s tactics are too forceful (YouGov, 2026). Nearly half of Americans, 46%, support abolishing ICE entirely, compared to 41% who oppose abolition (YouGov, 2026). These numbers represent a significant shift in public opinion compared to just a few years ago.

The paradox for Republicans is this: Americans express support for the general concept of immigration enforcement while simultaneously expressing disapproval of the specific tactics being used to enforce those laws. This is not a contradiction. It reflects a nuanced view that most people do not hold the cartoonish positions that political commentators assign to them. Russell acknowledges this tension by citing both polls, but she does not grapple with what it means. The implication seems to be that Republicans can continue to run on immigration enforcement while the actual implementation of those policies becomes increasingly unpopular. That calculation has not been tested in a general election yet, and I would not assume it will work out the way Republicans hope.

The Recursive Logic of Conservative Analysis

Russell concludes by warning Republicans that they cannot simply “look to Trump’s 2024 win and coast” because “Texans and the rest of Americans still care about affordability a lot.” This is the most honest sentence in her entire column, and it inadvertently undermines everything she has written before.

If voters care about affordability, then the economic data I have reviewed should give Republicans pause. The YouGov polling on ICE tactics suggests that voters care about how policies are implemented, not just that they are implemented. The Texas Senate District 9 result suggests that even in deep red territory, voters will reject Republican candidates who are perceived as out of touch with kitchen-table concerns.

Russell’s column is essentially an argument that everything is fine for Republicans while also warning Republicans that everything is not fine. This is the recursive logic that has characterized conservative political analysis since at least 2016: acknowledge the warning signs, explain why they do not matter, and issue urgent warnings about the need to take the warning signs seriously. You cannot have it both ways.

A Note on Methodology

I want to be clear about where my analysis differs from the original column in ways that matter. Russell cites specific poll results from Cygnal and YouGov. I have verified these citations. The Cygnal poll does show 73% believe entering without legal permission is breaking the law, and 61% support deportation (Cygnal, 2026). The YouGov poll does show 57% disapprove of ICE’s job performance (YouGov, 2026). Where Russell and I differ is in what these numbers mean and how they should be interpreted.

The unemployment rate is not as bad as it was during the pandemic, and I should note that the claim that “unemployment now is as bad as it was in the effing pandemic” is not supported by the data. The pandemic peak was 14.8%. The current rate is 4.4%. That is a significant difference. However, the claim that inflation dropping does not mean prices went down is entirely correct, and Russell’s failure to acknowledge this distinction is revealing.

Here is where we end up

Nicole Russell’s column is a masterclass in turd polishing. She takes genuinely disturbing data for Republicans, applies a thin layer of interpretive gloss, and presents the result as a reassurance to the conservative faithful. The fact that she must immediately qualify her reassurance with warnings about the need to take things seriously suggests that even she does not believe her own argument.

The Texas Senate District 9 result matters. The YouGov polling on ICE tactics matters. The trajectory of unemployment, even at current levels, matters. Russell acknowledges each of these points while simultaneously dismissing their significance, which is a rhetorical technique rather than an analytical one. It is the kind of writing that makes readers feel better about the state of things without actually explaining anything about the state of things.

When voters in a district that Trump won by 17 points elect a Democrat who was outspent more than ten to one, that is not nothing. When polling shows that a majority of Americans disapprove of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws, that is not nothing. When unemployment is trending upward even as the rate has dropped slightly, that is not nothing. Russell knows this. The question is whether her readers do.

The complete polish job on this Texas turd can be witnessed in its natural habitat here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2026/02/09/taylor-rehmet-texas-election-republicans-midterms/88528285007/

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Works Cited

Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2020). Unemployment rate rises to record high 14.7 percent in April 2020. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/unemployment-rate-rises-to-record-high-14-point-7-percent-in-april-2020.htm

Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026). The employment situation: December 2025. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Cygnal. (2026). Deportation, ICE, and rule of law: National survey of likely 2026 midterm general election voters. https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Cygnal-Deportation-Poll-Data.pdf

FairVote. (2026). Runoff turnout drops 69% in Texas. https://fairvote.org/runoff-turnout-drops-69-in-texas/

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2026). Unemployment rate (UNRATE). FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2026). Labor force participation rate (LNU01300000). FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300000

Serrano, A. (2026, January 30). Democrat wins special election for red Texas Senate seat. The Texas Tribune. https://www.texastribune.org/2026/01/30/texas-senate-district-9-runoff-rehmet-wambsganss-special-election/

YouGov. (2026, January 26). Today more Americans support than oppose abolishing ICE. https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53939-more-americans-support-than-oppose-abolishing-ice-immigration-minneapolis-shooting-poll

US Inflation Calculator. (2026). Current U.S. inflation rates: 2000-2026. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/